2019年8月7日星期三

当前商战的两个特点:未发表和无效。

目前的商业战争是前所未有的,因为它首次出现在全球化背景下,并根据不完善的自由贸易计划建立的国际贸易规则。使这场贸易战成为一个新角色的另一个因素是它现在失去了双边的条件并变得全球化,因为目前生产过程之间存在高度的联系。许多国家经济;从这种方式来看,这种对抗将长期和间接影响数十个国家内数百个生产活动部门。




在一个经济活动以自由贸易为标志的星球上,生产活动链和全球化; 从理论上讲,似乎不太可能发生全球性的商业战争。只有发起敌对行动的国家才有权购买进口商品,其来源不是来自国际商业活动,而是来自全球金融活动,这种情况才会发生,但是,这不仅仅是足够的,还需要这个国家它与全球价值链没有高度的整合。




目前的商业战争也是无效的,因为它不会让国家发起敌对行动来实现为这些目的而采取的保护主义贸易战略所确定的目标。很简单,贸易逆差的减少不会带来经济增长,因此也不会改善工作条件或提高工资。




毫无疑问,高贸易逆差会引起经济主体的关注,但这不是一种需要立即关注的现象,因为贸易平衡的行为取决于有关国家的经济结构,而,取决于她拥有的竞争优势。显然,这种情况在短期内是不可能改变的。




没有证据证明大量使用关税可以减少贸易逆差; 只有可能证实,关税的上升会产生被国内生产者利用以提高其利润率的专属市场。




然而,即便如此,预计在美国,连续增加关税电池的申请最终将导致该国进口的进口收缩。这种减少的原因是北美市场上那些竞争力不强或附加值较低的外国产品消失。同样,北美商业化渠道运营中的期望和不确定性的激增也将从洋基展示中驱逐外国产品,因为干预供应和生产链的外国公司将无法正确规划生产。

转到:Marketing91 - 营销渠道的定义

因此,从长期来看,尽管进口减少,但由于全球价值链新的耦合引起的全球经济危机将导致收缩,美国的贸易逆差预计不会有所改善。北美出口。




从短期来看,美国进口量必须表现出很大的刚性,不应对第一波关税增长做出反应。这种僵化取决于美国人为获取外国货物而购买的巨大购买力。这种购买力是由工资差异和美国经济与世界其他地区之间存在的生产率差异造成的。除此之外,美元高估使得北美消费者能够获得更多的外国产品。

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